Even as President Donald Trump’s administration lifts tariffs on hundreds of food imports, American consumers are still paying more for their Thanksgiving groceries this season. Prices for turkey, stuffing, vegetables, and coffee remain well above pre‑pandemic levels due to persistent inflation and global supply disruptions. The recent tariff rollback is intended to bring gradual relief, but its impact at supermarket checkouts will take time to show.
Grocery Prices Still Climbing Into the Holidays
Nationally, grocery costs have risen by roughly 2.7 percent year over year, with holiday staples once again testing household budgets. The price of turkey, cranberry sauce, and stuffing remains noticeably higher than average seasonal levels, and red meat continues to be one of the most expensive categories on the list.
Ground beef costs roughly 13 percent more than last year, while premium steaks are up nearly 17 percent, reflecting both the lingering effects of tariffs and strong global demand for U.S. meat products. Supply constraints and weather‑related feed shortages have also inflated cattle prices, pushing expenses higher across meat departments and restaurant menus alike.
Inside the Tariff Rollback
On November 14, 2025, the Trump administration removed tariffs on 236 imported food products, including coffee beans, bananas, beef, and a wide range of fruits and vegetables. The repeal aimed to relieve price pressures before the holidays and to ease tensions with major agricultural exporters such as Brazil and Colombia.
The rollback follows mounting public concern about food costs that have remained stubbornly high despite overall inflation cooling. The goal was twofold: to make key imported products more affordable and to help grocery suppliers restock faster after months of delayed shipments and higher import duties.
However, some tariffs remain in place. Tomatoes and certain processed products continue to face import taxes due to agricultural trade disputes. Economists say those exceptions will keep some prices from dropping quickly, limiting the reach of immediate holiday savings.
When Will Consumers See the Difference?
Analysts and retailers caution that price relief will not be felt overnight. Many imports were already in transit or stocked under earlier tariff rates, meaning supermarkets and distributors must first clear out higher‑priced inventory.
For coffee, one of the most tariff‑sensitive items, the changes should start filtering through supply chains by December. Wholesale importers expect visible price stabilization by early 2026 as fresh shipments arrive from Latin America without the extra tariff burden.
Until then, shoppers can expect only modest short‑term declines. Average coffee prices surged nearly 21 percent earlier this year because of both tariffs and drought‑hit yields in Brazil, the world’s top producer. According to the National Coffee Association, easing tariffs may finally help lower retail prices in time for the winter season, offering small but welcome relief for households squeezed by broader living costs.
Food Industry Reaction
The nation’s food and restaurant industries broadly welcomed the tariff repeal. Leaders of major trade groups such as the National Restaurant Association and the Consumer Brands Association described the move as an overdue step toward easing inflationary pressures.
Manufacturers that rely on imported agricultural ingredients stand to benefit from lower input costs, which could eventually stabilize consumer prices. Many companies said they intend to pass on savings once inventory cycles renew, though ongoing challenges—such as labor shortages, fuel costs, and transportation bottlenecks—may delay the full benefit.
Still, retailer optimism remains cautious. Many grocery chains say they are watching global commodity markets closely as logistics and shipping fees remain elevated, offsetting part of the tariff savings. Smaller specialty stores that depend on imported foods have been among the most vocal proponents of the rollback, calling it crucial for maintaining competitiveness and curbing food inflation.
Coffee Becomes the Next Relief Test
Among products affected by the tariff changes, coffee could become the most visible test case for price relief. Morning coffee costs have climbed dramatically since early 2024, squeezing both small cafés and consumers. With tariffs lifted, importers expect supply costs to decline steadily in the first quarter of 2026.
If weather conditions stabilize in major producing regions and shipping routes remain open, the average price of a standard cup of brewed coffee could edge lower within months. In supermarket aisles, both ground and whole‑bean packages should gradually reflect new wholesale discounts as inventories reset.
Coffee industry leaders describe these developments as a step toward restoring balance after two turbulent years of trade barriers and supply disruptions. “Consumers can expect real improvement—but not instantly,” a spokesperson from the National Coffee Association said, noting that the impact will unfold alongside broader inflation trends.
Balancing Optimism with Realities
For now, the tariff rollback offers more relief prospects than immediate savings. With key inputs like fuel and packaging still costly, retailers expect food prices to level off rather than fall significantly through the end of the year. The U.S. Department of Agriculture projects overall grocery inflation to moderate to around 2 percent in early 2026, assuming logistics normalize and tariffs remain suspended.
Household budgets, meanwhile, continue to feel the strain of elevated everyday costs. Families are urged to plan holiday meals early, look for regional discounts, and consider store brands or bulk purchases to offset limited short‑term savings.
Summary Table
| Category | Price Change (YoY) | Tariff Status | Expected Relief Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|
| Coffee | +21 % | Tariffs removed | Gradual easing by Christmas |
| Beef | +13 % (ground beef) | Partial tariff removal | Slow relief through early 2026 |
| Traditional Thanksgiving Items | Elevated | No tariff changes | Minimal impact in near term |
| Overall Groceries | +2.7 % | 236 food tariffs lifted | Weeks to months |
What Lies Ahead
Economists say success will depend on whether tariff reductions hold long enough to flow through suppliers and lower shelf prices. If manufacturers and distributors pass along savings, consumers could see meaningful declines in early 2026. Until then, most shoppers will notice only minor relief at checkout during this year’s holiday season.
The near‑term picture remains mixed: headline inflation is cooling, but food costs are adjusting more slowly. As households wait for tariff impacts to spread, small savings on coffee and imported produce could signal the start of broader moderation in 2026 grocery prices.
5 Quick FAQs
1. Why are grocery prices still high despite tariff cuts?
Inflation, transport costs, and supply bottlenecks are still keeping prices elevated even after tariff relief.
2. Which products had tariffs removed?
Coffee, bananas, beef, and several fruits and vegetables were among the 236 items freed from import duties.
3. When will shoppers feel real savings?
Price relief should start appearing around Christmas and expand through early 2026.
4. Will Thanksgiving dinner cost less next year?
Yes, if tariffs remain lifted and supply stabilizes, traditional holiday food costs should ease by late 2026.
5. Is coffee the first product to decline in price?
Likely. Coffee imports benefit immediately from tariff removal and new harvest shipments are expected soon.